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On Thursday, the euro gained 77 pips, driven by U.S. data from Challenger showing a rise in job cuts from 55,597 in October to 57,727 in November. Adding to the pessimism, initial jobless claims released an hour later rose to 224k from 215k the previous week. What does this fundamental-technical pattern suggest? Major players may be preparing to buy the euro, even in response to neutral U.S. labor data released today.
Today's forecasts offer room for interpretation. November nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to show an increase of 202k, but unemployment is also projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Even minor deviations could be framed as "weak."
The technical outlook suggests the price aims to break above the 1.0598 resistance level, supported by the leading Marlin oscillator, which holds firmly in bullish territory.
The first target for growth is the resistance at 1.0667, where the price will face the balance line. Success here could allow the euro to continue its ascent into the 1.0762/77 target range, a support zone from October 23–29. (Target levels have been slightly adjusted since the last review).
A bearish scenario would materialize only if the price falls below 1.0461, negating the bullish plan. The price consolidates between the balance line and the 1.0598 target level. The Marlin oscillator is extending its growth in positive territory. The next move will largely depend on today's U.S. labor market data.
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