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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 152.82 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero level, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Following the pair's growth, the 153.15 price level was tested as the MACD began moving upward from the zero level, confirming a valid entry point for buying. By the time of writing, the pair had risen by 30 points.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's future policy, the dollar currently holds greater appeal than the yen. Investors aim to reduce risks, while anticipating potential monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve next week. Meanwhile, the ambiguity surrounding the Japanese Central Bank's actions is leading to further yen depreciation in international markets. This creates additional challenges for an economy already suffering from low consumption and debt fatigue.
For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the 153.64 level (green line on the chart) with a target at 153.86 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.86, I will exit purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points downward. Expect the pair to continue its upward trend.
Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 153.35 price level is tested twice consecutively, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 153.64 and 153.86 can be expected.
Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaches the 153.35 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.11, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points upward. Dollar pressure will only return as part of a correction at the week's end.
Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 153.64 price level is tested twice consecutively, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines toward 153.35 and 153.11 can be expected.
Beginner Forex traders must exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It's best to avoid trading before the release of major fundamental reports to escape sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't practice money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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