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The test of the 1.2558 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling the pound, even though there were reasons to do so.
Today's disappointing economic data on the UK GDP caused the pound to decline. Ahead lies the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, which plays a crucial role in gauging consumer sentiment and, consequently, economic activity. If the data surpass economists' forecasts, it could act as a catalyst for dollar strengthening, which would negatively impact the pound's exchange rate. Considering that the pound is already facing several challenges, including uncertainty surrounding the UK's economic recovery, the chances of the pair's growth are slim.
Regarding intraday strategies, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Today, I plan to buy the pound at the 1.2551 level (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.2600 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2600, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points downward from this level). A rise in the pound can only be expected following weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2513 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.2551 and 1.2600.
I plan to sell the pound after breaking below the 1.2513 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2477, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points upward from this level). Sellers will likely dominate only after strong U.S. statistics.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2551 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.2513 and 1.2477.
Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is better to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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