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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rose to the resistance zone of 1.2611–1.2620 on Monday but failed to execute a rebound. For over a week now, the pair has been trading horizontally. A rebound from the resistance zone of 1.2611–1.2620 would indicate a potential reversal in favor of the US dollar, leading to a decline toward the 1.2488 level, where the rise of the pound began. In any case, I do not expect the pair to exit the 1.2488–1.2620 range in the coming days.
The wave situation raises no questions. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the "bullish" trend can be considered over, and a new "bearish" trend is forming. For this new trend to be completed, the pound needs to rise at least to the 1.2709–1.2734 zone.
Monday's economic calendar contained nothing of interest. Both bears and bulls currently lack reasons to open new positions. As a result, the pair remains in a sideways range, and this pattern is unlikely to change before year-end. The pound's quotes could return to the 1.2488 level in the near future, as they are currently at the upper boundary of the range. However, a break below this level would require significant effort from the bears, and for this, new economic data—currently unavailable—might be necessary. While the "bearish" trend persists, it has been paused until next year. In the upcoming year, the pound faces challenges, especially in the first quarter. The UK economy is showing subpar performance, and the Bank of England may focus its efforts on preventing further economic slowdown. Meanwhile, in the US, economic growth is strong, and Donald Trump's victory in the elections, along with his subsequent promises, bolsters traders' confidence in the dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.2565. However, the sideways range on the hourly chart is currently more significant than the 4-hour chart's picture. The descending trend channel indicates bearish dominance, which they are unlikely to relinquish soon. Only a breakout above the channel would suggest a significant rally for the pound.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category changed little over the last reporting week. The number of Long positions among speculators rose by 4,707, while short positions decreased by 3,092. Bulls still hold the advantage, but it has visibly diminished in recent months. The gap between long and short positions is now only 27,000: 102,000 versus 75,000.
In my opinion, the pound still faces downward prospects, and the COT reports indicate strengthening bearish positions nearly every week. Over the past three months, long positions have decreased from 160,000 to 102,000, while short positions have grown from 52,000 to 75,000. I believe professional players will continue to reduce Long positions or increase Shorts over time, as all potential drivers for pound purchases have already been exhausted. Graphical analysis also supports the pound's decline.
Economic Calendar for the US and UK:
The economic events calendar for Tuesday contains no notable entries. The information background is unlikely to influence trader sentiment today.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Tips:
Sales of the pair are possible upon a new rebound from the 1.2611–1.2620 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2488 and 1.2363–1.2370. Purchases could have been considered on a rebound from the 1.2488 level on the hourly chart, with the nearest targets already reached. New purchases will be possible upon another rebound from 1.2488.
Fibonacci Levels:
Fibonacci grids are constructed between 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
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