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As of Monday, the British pound closed with a small candlestick body on Tuesday, indicating a period of consolidation with the potential for a downward movement. As a result, the nearest support level at 1.2036 is likely to be broken, and the price may target the range of 1.1930 to 1.1950.
Today, a comprehensive set of inflation data for December from the UK will be released. The forecast for the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain at 2.6% year-on-year, while the core CPI is projected to decline from 3.5% year-on-year to 3.4% year-on-year. There is a possibility that the pound's consolidation above the 1.2186 level will come to an end today. Additionally, inflation data from the US will be released, which could lead to market surprises.
On the four-hour chart, the price is hesitant to continue rising, as indicated by the neutrality of the Marlin oscillator, which is hovering around the zero line. The price may make a quick move to test the MACD line at 1.2258 and could drop below 1.2186. However, if the price receives support from the inflation figures and resumes growth, a breakout above 1.2294 would open the path to a target of 1.2367. Beyond this level, the pound could enter a "free roaming zone" up to the resistance level at 1.2510. While this is an alternative scenario, the pound could still surprise us.
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