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By the end of last week, the bulls successfully tested the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.0520. To maintain their gains and create new opportunities, they need to overcome the current resistance and penetrate the daily cloud. The next targets for further growth are the levels from the weekly timeframe at 1.0575 and the monthly timeframe at 1.0597. However, it's important to note that a downward gap formed at the market's opening today. Bullish scenarios should only be considered after the gap is closed and the price stays above the current levels. In the meantime, bears might use this gap to strengthen their positions and push the pair lower. The nearest downside targets are in the zone of 1.0404 to 1.0391, which aligns with both the weekly short-term trend and the daily short-term trend.
Currently, bulls have the upper hand on lower timeframes. However, the pair is experiencing a corrective downward movement, influenced by the daily central Pivot Point at 1.0476. If this correction continues, the market could test the weekly long-term trend at 1.0417, which plays a crucial role in determining the balance of power. A breakout and reversal of this trend could lead to stronger bearish momentum. Additional intraday support levels, based on classic Pivot Points, are found at 1.0429, 1.0366, and 1.0319. Resistance levels are identified at 1.0539, 1.0586, and 1.0649.
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The final trading week of January has begun, raising the question of whether the bulls can maintain the long lower shadow on the monthly candlestick. If conditions remain favorable, they might even turn the candle body bullish. Last week, the pair experienced a corrective rise toward the resistance levels of 1.2425, 1.2456, and 1.2487. Breaking through these levels would enable the bulls to achieve key objectives: eliminate the daily dead cross and secure support from the weekly short-term trend. Conversely, if a rebound occurs from the resistance, the bears will likely target the monthly Ichimoku cloud, with its upper boundary at 1.2301. To do this, they will need to break through the support of the daily cross at 1.2382 and 1.2330.
On the lower timeframes, the bulls have the main advantage. Their intraday targets include the classic Pivot Point resistance levels at 1.2536, 1.2595, and 1.2689, as well as the breakout target of the H4 Ichimoku cloud located between 1.2528 and 1.2575.
If the current correction deepens, the bears will aim to break below the central Pivot Point at 1.2442 and move toward the weekly long-term trend level at 1.2339. A break of this level would give the bears a significant advantage on the lower timeframes. Additional bearish targets for the day are the classic Pivot Point support levels at 1.2383, 1.2289, and 1.2230.
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