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UK Claimant Count Rate was at the same level, 7.8%. Meanwhile, Claimant Count Change was -29.2K vs. forecast for -14.3K and data from June was revised downwardly from -21.2K to -29.4K.
The bank of England Meeting Minutes showed that the members of the committee voted unanimously for the preservation of bond buying program without changes. The pound strengthened 52 points.
Today data on UK Retail Sales in July is issued, forecast 0.7% vs. 0.2% in June. News from the US is expected to be positive. We do not consider that strong data will raise risk appetite, however, we expect upward movement.
The first target is 1.5572, the second is 1.5600, confluence of the highs from May 1-6. Break of this strong level (upward rebound was observed on March 12 and other time it rebounded downwardly) is unlikely from the psychological point of view, as the major investment idea is the cut of QE3 in the US and debates on the reduction of the US budget.
However, in case of weak data, if the rate consolidates under the testing level 1.5494, the decline to support of Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding) on the H4 is possible, to 1.5440 and then to 1.5390.
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