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Yesterday, the major driving force of the markets decline was rising tension in the Syrian conflict. The DFM General Index, index of the Dubai’s stock market dropped 7%. Strong data on Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany in August (107.5 vs. forecast for 107.1) did not help the euro and the growth of the euro during the US session was due to speculative actions. As a result, the euro added 24 points.
Today at 10:00 UTC+4 GfK Consumer Confidence Survey in August is issued, it is expected 7.1 vs. 7.0. Only due to the growth of the euro yesterday the continuation of modest growth is possible. When the testing level 1.3400 is broken, we expect the price in the area of highs of June 18-19 – August 20-21, ~ 1.3422. Later at 18:00 UTC+4 data on US Pending Home Sales in July is expected to be flat vs. -0.4% in June. As a rule, the data will be regarded as the sign of QE3 cut and amid rising tension in Syria, the euro may only drop. When the testing level 1.3358 is broken, we expect decline to the range 1.3312/22 and further to the support of trend line on the H4, 1.3288.
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