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Global macro overview for 09/08/2017:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will make a decision regarding the interest rate tonight. Market participants expect the official cash rate to stay unchanged at the level of 1.75% and this decision should exert pressure on NZD. Due to deterioration in data and the currency strength, the risk lies with the softening of the language of the official statement. Recently, the FX market has been focused on selling USD and for this reason, NZD/USD may not be prepared for dovish signals from the central bank (even after the last reversal towards 0.7300 level).
New Zealand's economic picture has deteriorated since the RBNZ's latest revision of its forecasts in May. While business and consumer sentiment indicators remain solid, quarterly labor market reports and prices have disappointed. While the unemployment rate in the second quarter fell to an eight-year minimum of 4.8%, it was a decline in the participation rate that neutralized unexpected drop in employment. Moreover, the CPI reading for the second quarter disappointed: 1.7% on a yearly basis versus 2.1% that was assumed by the RBNZ in May forecasts. Spring price hike as a result of extraordinary events has already expired. In addition, the NZD trade weighted exchange rate remains at an elevated level, higher than the June RBNZ meeting and over 2% above the RBNZ forecast at the end of September. In the official statement, the RBNZ may highlight the last weakness in the data, as well as the bank's dissatisfaction with a sharp appreciation of the currency. Even if it is primarily due to the weakening of the USD, there is a high risk that the RBNZ will decide on a more verbal intervention. CPI forecasts for 2017 should be slightly lower, although the bank will likely keep the path for the OCR rate, where the 25 bp increase is not planned earlier than in the second half of 2019. As a result, the dovish tone of the statement will likely cause a sell-off in NZD across the board.
Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe ahead of the RBNZ interest rate decision. The market trades in oversold conditions below 61%Fibo and below technical support at the level of 0.7333. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7261 and the next important resistance lies at 0.7390.
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