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After cheering announcement made by Lawrence Summers on Sunday, data on US Industrial Production in August was strong and the US dollar started slowly reversing to the starting points.
Today at 13:00 UTC+4 relevant data on Germany and the eurozone is issued. ZEW Economic Sentiment in September is estimated to be 45.3 vs. 42.0 in August; ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) is expected to be 47.2 vs. 44.0 in August. Current Account in the Eurozone in July is forecast to be 15.3 billion euro vs. 14.9 billion in June. Taking into account weak data on Industrial Production in the Eurozone published last week, we consider the expectations on Economic Sentiment are rather overrated. We expect the data will be lower than forecast and the euro will decline.
The first bearish target is the low of August 22, 1.3297; the second is support of trend line on the daily chart, 1.3265.
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