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The balance of the macroeconomic data in the Eurozone was positive. PMI Services in the Eurozone was 51.6 vs. expectations for 50.9. German Industrial Production in September grew 3.3% vs. forecast for 0.6%. Retail sales declined 0.6% vs. forecast for -0.3%. The euro grew 40 points.
In the UK Industrial production in September grew 0.9% vs. estimates for 0.7%. NIESR GDP in October was 0.7% vs. 0.8% in September and forecast made by the majority of economists, 0.5%. The British pound added 36 points.
Today at 15:00 UTC+4 data on Industrial Production in Germany in September is published. It is forecast to be 0.2% vs. 1.4% in August. We expect he data will be better than forecast. At 16:45 UTC+4 ECB Rate Announcement is scheduled. We do not exclude that the key rate will be preserved, but some quantitative easing programme will be announced. i.e. LTRO-3. At 17:30 UTC+4 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks. If the ECB does not take any decision during today’s meeting, we have to wait harsh and aggressive speech against the strength of the euro, particularly against deflation. Thus, direct statement about the cut of the rate in December might be made.
Today the Bank of England publishes decision on key rate and quantitative easing program (at 16:00 UTC+4). The changes are not anticipated.
At 17:30 UTC+4 US GDP in the third quarter in the first estimate is revealed. Forecast 1.9%-2.0% vs. 2.5% in the second quarter. We expect positive reaction of the investors on the dollar buys.
We expect during the daytime the euro will rise amid data from Germany and in the evening the price may drop to the levels of 1.3450 and to 1.3385-1.3400 in the perspective.
We consider the British pound will decline to the levels of 1.6005 and 1.5955.
AUD/USD.
Weekly report on oil inventories in the US yesterday showed the decline. The crude oil inventories were 1.577 million barrels vs. expectations for 1.63 million. However, even in the daytime the quotes were rising amid civil war in Libya. The Australian dollar was strengthening.
The first day of talks on nuclear programme in Iran is said to be successful. It is expected this week the framework agreement on nuclear programme will be prepared.
This morning Unemployment Rate in Australia in October was revealed, it grew from 5.6% to 5.7%, following the news the Australian currency lost 60 points. At 17:30 UTC+4 US GDP in the third quarter is revealed. The signs of positive investors’ outlook is increase of the forecast from 1.8% to 2.0% (vs. 2.5% in the second quarter), i.e. calmness of the Fed about the termination of budget financing in October stimulates the purchases of the US dollar.
We expect the decline of the Australian dollar to the levels of 0.9456 and 0.9400.
USD/JPY.
Yesterday the yen grew 17 points, amid strong data on six major car producers; the total profit grew 50%. In particular, the Subaru sales increased by 25%, Suzuki rose by 12%. However, today Nikkei225 is declining by 0.5% (by 7:00 UTC+4) and constrains the growth of the yen. The situation may be changed by means of strong data on US GDP. If the data is in line with the forecasts we expect the rise of the yen to the area of high from October 16-17, 98.95. If data is not in line with the forecasts, we may observe a decline to the area 97.55/80.
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