05.07.201807:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 5, 2018

Long-term review

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AUD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains today after rejecting off the dynamic level of 20 EMA yesterday with a daily close. Whereas AUD has been struggling with the recent economic reports, Trade War tension has got into USD ahead of the upcoming NFP report this Friday.

Recently AUD Retail Sales report was published with better than expected value at 0.4% decrease from the previous value of 0.5% but a slightly better than expectation of 0.3% and Trade Balance report failed to meet the expectation with the actual figure of 0.83B increasing from the previous figure of 0.47B which was expected to be at 1.21B.

On the other hand, ahead of the NFP report tomorrow, today Challenger Job Cuts report is going to be published today which previous was at -4.8% with no expectation so far, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is expected to increase to 190k from the previous figure of 178k, Unemployment Claims is expected to decrease to 225k from the previous figure of 227k, Final Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 56.5 and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report is expected to have slight decrease to 58.3 from the previous figure of 58.6. Moreover, today FOMC Meeting Minutes is going to be held which is expected to have a higher impact on the USD momentum this week.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days despite the AUD mixed economic reports published recently. Though certain volatility may occur in the process market is still not anti USD biased by now for the Trade War for which certain gains may be observed on the USD side for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.7350 area from where it is expected to push much lower towards 0.72 area in the coming days. The trend has been a bit non-volatile recently for which expected impulsive momentum is yet to be observed in the pair. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7500-50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

NEAREST RESISTANCE: 0.7500-50

NEAREST SUPPORT: 0.7250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE VOLATILE

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