17.10.201807:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for October 17, 2018

Long-term review

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USD/CAD has been quite impulsive, making bearish swings since it bounced off the 1.3050 area with a daily close. CAD has been the dominant currency in the pair. Despite higher volatility in the trend structure, CAD managed to sustain the bearish pressure in the pair against USD.

USD has been struggling in light of recently published disappointing economic reports which pushed USD down against CAD. Recently, US CPI and Retail Sales report were published worse than expected which enabled CAD to gain impulsive momentum despite other positive economic reports from the US published later. Today the US is due to post Building Permits report which is expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.25M, Housing Starts are assumed to decrease to 1.22M from the previous figure of 1.28M, and Crude Oil Inventories are also expected to decrease to 1.6M from the previous figure of 6.0M. Additionally, FOMC Member Brainard is going to speak today about FED intentions on interest rates and monetary policy. The speech is expected to make a neutral impact on the current market scenario.

On the CAD side, a significant decrease in Foreign Securities Purchases to 2.82B from the previous figure of 15.29B which was expected to be at 10.05B provided USD certain room to be impulsive and win back some earlier losses. Today Canada's Manufacturing Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.9%. Ahead of the CPI and Core Retail Sales report to be published on Friday this week, the pair is set to trade with higher volatility.

Meanwhile, both Canada and the US are expected to present mixed economic reports. Any positive reading from Canada is expected to trigger impulsive momentum against USD. As the market sentiment has been favoring CAD against USD in the current market situation, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently broken below 1.2950 area which is being retested currently by the daily candle as a retracement. The price is expected to move lower towards 1.2750 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3050 area with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.

SUPPORT: 1.2750

RESISTANCE: 1.2950, 1.3050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

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