30.07.201912:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR/TRY for July 30, 2019: price to push lower towards 6.00 again?

The Turkish lira has been quite impulsive with the recent gains against the euro which has managed to dominate with non-volatile bearish momentum in place. The euro that been struggling with the economic challenges recently is expected to lose momentum against TRY in the coming days.

The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged with the deposit rate at -0.4% and the main refinancing rate at 0.0%. Mario Draghi also indicated that there was a possibility of the further monetary policy easing on a later date. Moreover, the ECB has also assessed that the outlook for the European economy was getting worse day by day. The Governing Council pointed a reinvestment of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase program for an extended period of time. As the inflation rate is persistently below the target levels, the ECB has also underlined the need for a highly accommodative stance of the monetary policy

Before the ECB Press Conference, Germany's Social Democrat Finance Minister Scholtz rejected any pressure to increase fiscal spending. Besides the monetary policy measured by the ECB, fiscal support might be needed to cope with the current economic weakness. Admittedly, it still may difficult to introduce negative nominal interest rates, but if required Germany is expected to provide fiscal stimulus refuses.

On the other hand, the Turkish central bank mentioned that the primary target of the TCMB was to maintain the price stability objectives along with the financial stability. The financial regulator has also explained the released data and provided an outlook for the near-term economic conditions. The inflation has been following the downward pressure on the back of a deceleration in unprocessed food and energy prices, along with the contribution from domestic demand and the tight monetary policy. The consumer price index on a yearly basis has peaked last October near 25.25% and decreased to 15.72% in June. The central bank's survey of inflation expectations over the next 12 months fell to 13.90% from nearly 16.5% at the end of last year. New governor Murat Uysal noted there was the room for maneuver in the monetary policy and came up with a frontloaded 425bp easing by considering the current inflation outlook.

The economic confidence in Turkey has shown weakness The index decreased to 80.7 from 83.4, indicating uncertainty about the economic development. This week, the trade balance will be published along with the foreign arrivals of June.

As of the current scenario, TRY, having better fundamentals, is expected to sustain the bearish momentum over EUR which may continue pushing much lower in the coming days without much of the bullish intervention in the process.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:

The price has resided below 6.32 area with a daily close. A retest is possible while the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as the resistance. The preceding trend is strongly bearish and is expected to push further lower with a target towards 6.00 support area in the coming days. Though 6.1370 area can prove to be an obstacle for the upcoming bearish pressure, it is not quite strong to stop such an impulsive non-volatile preceding bearish trend.