02.08.201911:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 08/02/2019: World renowned name

Indeed, the outcome of the last meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations seriously discouraged market participants. We can say that many have not recovered from the psychological trauma. This is indicated by the complete indifference of the market to yesterday's macroeconomic data, which turned out to be rather curious. Thus, the final data on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Europe showed that it fell from 47.6 not to 46.4, but to 46.5. Similar data in the United States also showed a decline from 50.6 to 50.4, while a preliminary assessment indicated a decrease to 50.0. Yet, the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which was supposed to increase by 8 thousand, unexpectedly increased by 30 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications increased by 8 thousand instead of increasing by 1 thousand. The number of repeated applications increased by 22 thousand instead of the expected 7 thousand. This is in anticipation of the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor. However, all of these had no effect on the market. As if all this data were not there. Just as the market ignored the results of the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, which, however, did not bring anything new. Mark Carney once again talked about his nightmares about Brexit, which is most likely to happen without any agreement. No one can predict the consequences of such a development. It's just that all oracles cannot agree at all. It will be very bad or it will become a banal catastrophe. Investors, who were disoriented by the recent statements of Jerome Powell, have left all this unaddressed.

Contemplating the complete apathy of market participants, it was urgently necessary to seek help from the world luminaries in the field of parapsychology, which could for a few moments escape from under the care of orderlies and get to its smartphone. Just one phrase of Donald Trump on Twitter was enough to bring everyone to life. The team of Trump announced that from September 1, the United States imposes a 10% customs duty on Chinese goods worth $ 300 billion. With this decision, the United States imposed import duties on all remaining imports from the Middle Kingdom. Stock indexes immediately flew down and the dollar, albeit not sure, but began to give up their positions. Everyone was really impressed by such a demonstration of the principles of free trade that the United States is preaching with religious fervor throughout the world. Although once again, we were only explained that free trade implies unhindered access of American goods to any markets. Goods and services of other countries should not compete with the US in accordance with the principles of free trade. This is what provoked a decline in stock market indices, just as the fact that the American manufacturers themselves collect their products not in the United States, but in China. But the most amusing in everything is that Donald Trump, who tirelessly scolds the Federal Reserve System for sabotage in the form of unwillingness to actively lower the refinancing rate, does everything so that Jerome Powell and the company periodically reflect on the topic of its increase. Indeed, one of the main factors in deciding on the level of the refinancing rate is inflation. The United States itself imports a huge amount of goods and it is from China. if import duties are introduced on these goods, then sellers instantly raise prices on them. Consequently, the actions of Donald Trump contribute to rising inflation well or do not allow it to decline. Also, the fact that the situation is truly paradoxical is indicated by the fact that the decision to lower the refinancing rate was not unanimous. Two members of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations voted to keep it at the same level, then sellers instantly raise their prices.

A little cheered up market participants are now clearly looking forward with great interest to the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, which will be published tonight. True, its content can be extremely boring. On the one hand, the unemployment rate, as well as the average workweek, should remain unchanged. On the other hand, the growth rate of the average hourly wage can accelerate from 3.1% to 3.2%. Thus, Americans earn a little more and this should lead to an increase in retail sales, as well as inflation. But the joy in this regard will be moderate since 164 thousand new jobs should be created outside Agriculture against 224 thousand in the previous month. overall, the report's content expectations are moderately positive. Yes, and production orders can grow by 0.8%, while they fell by 0.7% in the previous month. So again, statistics to some extent favors moderate dollar growth.

But Europe will have nothing to answer again, as the growth rates of producer prices should slow down from 1.6% to 0.8%, while retail sales may remain unchanged. That is, this means that the profits of companies will decline. Consequently, it is worth waiting for a further decline in the single European currency to 1.1050.

Once again, the Bank of England disappointed market participants who are already tired of contemplating the eternal posture of an ostrich with their heads in the sand, and the pound simply has no reason to grow. Yes, and no macroeconomic data comes out, so he will be guided by the behavior of his continental neighbor. Thus, the pound will continue a fascinating journey towards historic lows and the current benchmark is 1.2050.