Permanecer 
Condições de Negociações
Ferramentas
4-hour timeframe
Average volatility over the past five days: 113p (high).
The second trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair went exactly according to the scenario, which we described on the weekend. We said that the general picture of the situation is very much like a correction against a correction. Thus, we assumed that there would be a turn up at the beginning of this week, despite the presence of a sell signal from Ichimoku. The pair stood in one place all day on Monday, and it began the expected upward movement on Tuesday. We believe that now the pair can continue to move approximately to the level of 1.10 and stabilize in the area of 1.09-1.10. By the way, we note once again that it was from the area of 1.08-1.10 (approximately) one and a half months ago that strong growth first began, and then an even stronger decline in the pair's quotes. Regarding volatility, markets are calming down, but this does not mean that they have completely done so. The pair has already passed about 142 points during the day and so far no correction has been observed against the main movement. Consequently, growth can continue, and volatility at the end of the day will be even higher. But even 140 points for the EUR/USD pair is an extremely large amount. Therefore, now we can again argue that the panic has returned to the markets or, at least, traders are again in a very excited state.
No important macroeconomic data in the course of the day has not been published. We can only highlight the report on industrial production in Germany for February. This indicator was -1.2% in annual terms, which is much better than the forecast values, as well as +0.3% in monthly terms. However, we have repeatedly said that traders have no interest in the data for the month of February. Moreover, market participants manage to ignore the most important macroeconomic statistics for March. Thus, the report from Germany for February could not cause any reaction a priori. Nevertheless, we note that the rate of decline has slightly decreased. Recall that in the European Union and, in particular, in Germany, the growth rate of industrial production has been declining for a year and a half. And it is unlikely that the coronavirus will allow them to start growing. Most likely, in March, we are waiting for new cuts in production indicators. This will apply to both the European Union and the United States. There were no publications from the US today, not even minor ones.
US President Donald Trump is still the main newsmaker of the world, as he manages to hand out interviews, make posts on social networks and does not miss a single important topic from his attention. For example, Trump had a phone conversation with his main rival in the 2020 election, former US Vice President Joe Biden. Both sides called the conversation "warm and good." According to sources close to Joe Biden, the Democrat shared several of his proposals for countering the coronavirus infection. The US president himself said that "the conversation was good" and he understood the point of view of his counterpart. However, Trump also noted that this does not mean that he agrees with Biden's opinion. The US president also managed to comment on the question of why the United States recorded the highest number of cases of coronavirus. According to Trump, the number of infected people is much higher in many countries of the world than official figures say . However, "the more tests you conduct, the more cases there are," Trump said, hinting that the United States has conducted a huge number of tests for the COVID-2019 virus, which clearly can not boast of other countries. "More than a million tests for the disease have been conducted in the United States," Trump said.
From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair has now worked out the Kijun-sen and Senkou span B lines of the Ichimoku indicator, so it can rebound from them, starting a downward correction. Also, the price has reached the upper Bollinger band, so it has additional resistance. In addition, the volatility level for April 7 has been worked out.
4-hour timeframe
Average volatility over the past five days: 157p (high).
The GBP/USD currency pair also began a round of upward movement on April 7, but in this case, the upward movement takes place inside the side channel. The pound is now flat, and the volatility levels on April 7 show the boundaries of this side channel as well as possible. Thus, until the pair's quotes leave this channel, which at the moment can be limited by the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2450, there is no talk of resuming the trend movement. The volatility of the pound/dollar pair remains quite high. The last average is 157 points; today the pair has already passed 220. Thus, just like in the case of the euro currency, the markets again begin to behave very aggressively if not to panic. Therefore, a second wave of panic is possible in the near future, but it will depend on many fundamental factors. For example, from the further spread of coronavirus in the European Union, Great Britain and the United States, from the development of vaccines against the virus, from the extension of quarantine measures in all of the above countries, from the cost of oil, from new possible drops in stock indices.
It should also be noted that at this time, the head of the UK, Boris Johnson, is in intensive care. And frankly, this is a very, very bad sign for the British prime minister. In most cases, coronavirus is mild and no worse than a common cold or flu. Only in 10-20% of cases it gives complications, and usually only in those cases when the immunity is weak or the body is weakened by other diseases. Thus, the intensive care unit is a bad sign. However, representatives of US pharmaceutical companies have already gone from America on Trump's personal instructions, who considers Johnson his friend. These companies have recently been developing a drug against coronavirus. "I spoke with two leading companies. They really advanced the therapy and have already arrived in London. Let's see if we can help Johnson. We have contacted all of Boris's doctors and will see what happens," Trump said. The US president did not specify which companies are in question and what treatment methods they can offer. However, it seems that this is an innovative method. If so, then it seems that the British doctors are unable to cope with Johnson's disease by conventional means and methods.
Recommendations for EUR/USD:
For short positions:
The EUR / USD pair started an upward correction against the Dead Cross on the 4-hour timeframe. A price rebound from the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines could trigger a resumption of the downward movement with the target at a volatility level of 1.0687. In this case, you can consider new sell positions in small lots.
For long positions:
It is recommended to buy the EUR/USD pair before consolidating the price above the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, which will indicate the resumption of an upward trend. The first goal in this case is the resistance level of 1.1043.
Recommendations for GBP/USD:
For short positions:
The pound/dollar pair is now inside the side channel, limited by levels of 1.2200 and 1.2450. Thus, it is recommended to trade either on the rebound from the upper or lower boundary of the channel, or wait for the completion of the flat. Short positions can be considered after breaking the level of 1.2200 with the aim of the line Senkou Span B.
For long positions:
It will be possible to buy the GBP/USD pair before consolidating the price above the level of 1.2450 with targets at resistance levels of 1.2584 and 1.2693.
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