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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
Euro fell by 15 pips on Friday morning amid a signal to sell that coincided with the MACD line being at the overbought area. Then, in the afternoon, another decrease was observed, this time by as much as 20 pips. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day.
Friday's data on EU industrial output did not affect the market at all because the figure was for September of this year. Meanwhile, ECB board member Philip Lane's speech boosted the euro, albeit weaker than anticipated. US report on consumer sentiment was also lower than the forecasts, so there was no downtrend in EUR / USD.
Today it is necessary to pay attention to the report on the foreign trade balance, as well as on the speech of ECB Chairman Christine Lagarde. She may touch upon the topic of monetary policy, which will put pressure on the euro. Then, in the afternoon, a calmer trading session is expected, as there is only the manufacturing index from New York. There is little chance that it would affect the market, so do not expect a sharp rise in dollar.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1468 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1498. Growth will be observed if the Euro area reports very strong data on foreign trade balance and if the ECB says hawkish policy statements.
Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1445, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1468 and 1.1498.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1445 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1400. Dovish ECB statements and weak data on EU foreign trade balance will push EUR / USD down.
Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1468, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1445 and 1.1400.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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