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Bitcoin remained within the narrow range of $41.7k–$42.5k over the weekend. Market activity was reduced to a minimum due to the closure of U.S. markets. However, the main news of recent days was the announcement of an extraordinary meeting of the Fed chairmen.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced an extraordinary closed meeting of the Fed's Board of Governors. The meeting will discuss the determination of advance and discount rates. However, the market expects that the meeting may start talking about an early increase in the key rate due to inflation.
As a result, fear intensified in the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Over the past day, the capitalization of all digital assets has collapsed by 6%, and the altcoin market has become the main sponsor of the fall. Bitcoin has kept a key support zone at $41.5k intact. In addition, the main cryptocurrency has significantly increased its share of dominance in the market. All these facts indicate that investors prefer savings financial instruments and withdraw funds from the altcoin market.
With this in mind, we should expect an increase in interest in gold and other precious metals, to a lesser extent in BTC, given the impending volatility. The main task of large investors at this stage will be to hedge risks due to the increased volatility of major indices and the U.S. dollar ahead of the fateful Fed meeting. Before answering the question of what awaits Bitcoin after the decision, let's take a look at the SPX charts.
The trading index was in the range of $4,500–$4,550, but eventually formed a downward trend and continued it in the current trading week. The asset has broken through an important range between the two moving averages and at the moment pricked the key support zone of $4,400.
The situation on the S&P 500 charts looks pessimistic, which confirms the market's bearish sentiment regarding risky assets. On the one hand, this will negatively affect Bitcoin due to increased correlation, but on the other hand, there is a possibility that the result of the Fed meeting will already be included in the price of the instrument.
Given the increased correlation between Bitcoin and the classic stock markets, we can expect movement in either direction. The current trading week will be held under the banner of volatility due to the upcoming meeting of the Fed, statistics on inflation in the U.S. on Tuesday, as well as data on the real estate market. All these events will cause active and impulsive movements of investors, which will be reflected in the crypto market.
On the daily chart of BTC/USD, an inverted head and shoulders pattern is completing its formation. The last two days, the price of the coin closed in a slight minus, which indicates a slight predominance of sellers. Technical indicators remain bullish: MACD is moving flat in the green zone, while the RSI index proves a high level of buying activity. The stochastic oscillator is hinting at a bullish crossover and going beyond the tight $41.7k–$42.5k range.
Despite the positive attitude, one cannot ignore the dynamics of the SPX movement and the generally negative economic situation for investing in risky assets. With this in mind, I assume a further decline in BTC to $41k, further consolidation and reaching the $46k mark, where the shoulder line will be broken, and the price will form a local upward trend towards $56k.
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