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On Thursday, US stock index futures dived after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. The Russian stock market crashed, as all stocks suffered massive losses. The Bank of Russia has banned short selling and over-the-counter markets until further notice. Dow Jones futures lost 655 points or 1.98%, S&P 500 futures slumped by 1.99%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dived by 2.65%.
West Texas Intermediate futures gained 5.61%, reaching $97.27 a barrel. Brent crude jumped by 5.95% to $102.60, surpassing $100 for the first time since 2014. Stocks of many energy companies have dipped, despite skyrocketing oil prices, allowing traders to open long positions in the medium term. Commodity prices are likely to remain high as the war in Ukraine continues – crude oil could even push new highs.
US president Biden has condemned the Russian attack, saying Russia would be held accountable by the international community. "Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way," Biden added.
Yesterday, major indexes closed in negative territory despite several upward corrections. The Dow Jones fell by 464 points or 1.3%. The S&P 500 lost 1.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite dived by 2.6%.
The upcoming monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve has also influenced the sentiment of traders. The Fed is now expected to begin increasing interest rate in March, with hikes not slowing down until 2023. The forecasted increase is currently 0.25%, down from 0.5% predicted two weeks earlier. Some economists, including experts from JPMorgan & Chase, expect the Fed to hike the rate at 9 upcoming meetings.
The forecast was revised downwards following recent statements by Fed officials, as well as international tensions. According to the latest FOMC meeting minutes, Fed policymakers rejected the idea of hiking the rates by 50 basis points. The president of the Fed Reserve Bank of New York John Williams stated there are no compelling arguments for a big move..
Markets players are trying to predict the extent of the Fed's policy adjustment. The Russo-Ukrainian war is adding additional uncertainty. Fed officials would have to consider the pros and cons of any measures against inflation, as well as any potential economic slowdown.
Anheuser-Busch, Alibaba, Discovery, and Moderna are due to publish their earnings reports today. Furthermore, US GDP data for Q4 2021 and US jobless claims data will be released today.
On the technical side, the S&P 500 opened below $4,155 due to a gap down, indicating trouble for the instrument. Bullish traders are likely to try and regain the level today. If they fail, increased pressure would push the index down to test $4,113 again. A breakout below that level would weigh down on the S&P 500 and open the way towards the lows - $4,805 and $4,057. If the index returns above $4,155 and settles there, it could increase the chances of a recovery. However, the outlook of today's trading session is unpredictable. New short positions could be opened near $4,223 and $4,265, if the S&P 500 rises. Everything would depend on market reaction to US and EU sanctions against Russia.
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