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The GBP/USD currency pair was trading in approximately the same way as the EUR/USD pair on Monday. Volatility during the day was low, the movement was very similar to the flat, but the British currency still continued to slide down. If even on Monday, with zero macroeconomic and fundamental background, the pound managed to fall in price, then things are really bad for the bulls. In principle, now we can only wait for a new fall to the level of 1.2981, from which the pair previously bounced at least twice. This time, most likely, there will be a breakthrough that will open the way for the bears further to the downside. As you can see, at this time, traders do not even need fundamentally new information to continue selling the pound. And the deteriorating geopolitical background may continue to put pressure on all risky currencies.
As for trading signals, none were generated on Monday. The price was approaching the extreme level of 1.3050 at the beginning of the US trading session, but still could not work it out. Therefore, it was not necessary to open trade deals yesterday. Perhaps this is for the best, since the movement during the day was far from the best.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound has witnessed a new strengthening of the bearish mood among professional traders. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 10,900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 11,000. Such changes are significant for the pound. The non-commercial group has already opened a total of 88,600 short positions and only 35,500 long positions. Thus, the difference between these numbers is almost threefold. This means that the mood of professional traders is now "pronounced bearish". Thus, this is another factor that speaks in favor of the continuation of the fall of the British currency. Note that in the case of the pound, the data of COT reports are completely different from the data on the euro. According to the pound, the mood of the major players changes every couple of months, but at this time it absolutely corresponds to what is happening on the market. The net position of the non-commercial group has already fallen to the levels where the last round of the pound's fall ended (the green line on the first indicator). Thus, we can even assume that in the coming weeks the pound will try to start a new ascent. However, the current fundamental and geopolitical background does not give good reasons to expect a strong growth of the British currency.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 19. There is no peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow and there cannot be.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 19. The United States primarily benefits from the conflict in Ukraine. The euro and the pound continued to fall.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on April 19. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
On the hourly timeframe, the pound continues to remain in a downward trend and not far from its 15-month lows. Thus, even taking into account last week's strong movements, the overall technical picture does not change in any way. There is still no trend line or channel, and the pair's movements are very difficult to predict and chaotic. This is clearly noticeable in the last five trading days, during which we observed both strong growth, a collapse, and a flat with scanty volatility. We highlight the following important levels on April 19: 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119, 1.3175. The Senkou Span B (1.3078) and Kijun-sen (1.3058) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels on the chart that can be used to take profits on transactions. No important events and publications are scheduled for Tuesday in the UK again. The calendar of macroeconomic events is also completely empty in the US. There will be nothing for the market to react to during the day, so we do not expect strong trend movements tomorrow. Nevertheless, the pound may continue to fall.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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