04.07.201312:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold to test 1,215-1,230 support

Long-term review

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Gold is currently trading at 1,250. Yesterday it tried to break above recent highs but got rejected at the 1,260 resistance level. Now it is trending lower as expected for wave C to complete near the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We are short with 1,259 stop and target at least 1,232 or even 1,215.

We stick to the strategy of selling near the highs with 1,269 stop and targeting the low 1,200's. We believe that a pull back towards that level will be given shortly. The downward move could accelerate when and if prices break below the recent low at 1,236. The first part of the decline from 1,266 to 1,236 was $30. The target of the decline that started from 1,260 is 1,230 for a 100% extension and 1,212 if the extension is 1.68 times the first decline. So both targets are within our Fibonacci support levels and most possible level to see another bottom.

The possibility for prices to continue rising from this level and make a new high above 1,266 is not very high. The form and pattern of the rise is overlapping and not impulsive. We always give a lot of attention to the form of every move, because it is a characteristic that hides many information. Concluding, the upward move from 1,236 does not convince us that there is a short term potential to make new high above 1,266. On the other hand, we believe that we should first see another downward pull back towards 1,215-30 area.

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