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The GBP/USD currency pair also slightly corrected upwards on Tuesday, but, unlike the euro, it continues to be above the Senkou Span B line on the hourly TF and above the Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour timeframe. Therefore, certain chances for the resumption of the upward movement remain. There were no special reasons for the pound to grow. The euro and the pound rose in sync, so, as usual, the matter concerned only the US dollar, which continues to rule the ball in the foreign exchange market. Most likely, the bears once again took part of the profit on short positions, which is why an upward rollback followed. Morning statistics in the UK was quite good for the British pound, and it provoked some growth. However, it is too early to talk about the resumption of the upward trend. To do this, you need to at least wait for the price to settle above the critical line.
Trading signals were boring on Tuesday, since none were formed during the day. The pair did not even approach important levels and lines, so there was not even a hypothetical moment of formation. Thus, traders on our system were not supposed to open positions on Tuesday.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed minimal changes. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 17,700 long positions and 14,600 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,100, which is not a lot for the pound. We could assume that the actions of major players and the movement of the pound have finally begun to coincide, but the pound has already begun a new round of decline, which risks transforming into a continuation of the global downward trend. The net position indicator has been growing slightly over the past weeks, but the mood of the big players remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And, if we recall the situation with the euro, then there are big doubts that based on the COT reports, we can expect a strong growth of the pair. How can you count on it if the market buys the dollar more than the pound? The non-commercial group now has a total of 91,000 shorts and 42,000 longs open. The difference, as we see, is still very large. The euro cannot show growth if the major players are bullish, and the pound will suddenly be able to grow if the mood is bearish? We remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the British currency, although there are still certain technical reasons for this.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 12. Sweden refuses to provide Russia with the results of the investigation into the Nord Stream explosions.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 12. The Liz Truss government is teetering on the brink.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 12. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
The pound/dollar pair tried to roll back up on the hourly timeframe, but so far this rollback is just a pullback, and not a resumption of the upward trend. It is still very difficult for the pound to count on growth, although it has a little more chances than the euro due to technique. If you look at the "foundation" and geopolitics, then both European currencies may be in a downward direction for several more months. We highlight the following important levels for today: 1.0538, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442, 1.1649. Senkou Span B (1.0923) and Kijun-sen (1.1218) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on positions. The UK will publish reports on GDP and industrial production. We do not believe that such data can provoke a strong reaction from the market, but a day earlier, it still followed the less important statistics, so it could be the same case today. Nothing interesting planned in America.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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