11.07.202413:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 11th (US session)

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price of 161.62 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the scenario for selling the dollar and resulting in a 20-point drop in the pair. Such profit-taking ahead of important statistics is not surprising, but the second half of the day will be decisive for the Japanese yen and the dollar. The Consumer Price Index, initial jobless claims, and FOMC member Raphael Bostic are on the agenda. A significant rise in inflation will lead to a strong increase in USD/JPY and a renewal of annual highs. Only a steady CPI movement toward 2.0% will strengthen dollar sellers, leading to an active sell-off of the pair and a larger decline. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario #1 despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directed movement following the statistics.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 161.72 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 162.16 (thicker green line). Around 162.16, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. You can expect the pair to rise today only after breaking the weekly high. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting its upward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 161.45 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 161.72 and 162.16.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it updates the level of 161.45 (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 161.02, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips from the level. Sellers will show themselves after a failed attempt to rise above the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 161.72 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 161.45 and 161.02.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – anticipated price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – anticipated price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – It is important to consider overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.

Important Advice for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before releasing important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations.
• If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan for successful trading like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.