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A combination of multiple factors led to a drop in the price of gold today, nearly reaching a weekly low. President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race has increased the chances of Donald Trump becoming the next President of the United States. Additionally, the unexpected interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China on Monday continue to support optimistic sentiments in the risky market and serve as a key factor hindering the precious metal's role as a safe-haven asset.
Nevertheless, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September should help limit the losses in non-yielding gold. Moreover, market participants are factoring in the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year. This leads to a further decline in US Treasury bond yields, which keep dollar bulls on the defensive, thereby supporting the yellow metal. Therefore, before preparing to continue the recent pullback from the all-time high, it would be prudent to wait for subsequent stronger selling.
From a technical perspective, the price of gold finds support, attracting some buyers near the breakout point at $2390. This level now coincides with the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should be a key pivot point. A decisive break below this level could open the way for deeper losses.
The price could then fall to the base of the mother bar, which broke through the $2390 level, into the area of $2365-2370. A further decline would aim for the 50-day SMA zone at $2350-2360 before potentially dropping to the round level of $2300, with some intermediate support.
On the other hand, further upward movement will face some resistance around $2415, above which short covering could lift the price to the round level of $2400 in the $2437-2438 zone. Sustained growth beyond the $2400 round level will indicate that the corrective decline has exhausted itself and shifted the short-term bias in favor of the bulls.
A subsequent rally is likely to bring XAU/USD back to the all-time high reached on July 17, with some intermediate resistance.
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