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Analysis of trades and tips on on GBP/USD
The price test of 1.2760 occurred when the MACD indicator had significantly risen from the zero mark. However, I focused on acting in the second half of the day, ignoring the indicator's readings. As expected, the pair showed strong and decisive movements after the U.S. data. As a result of purchases, GBP/USD rose by more than 50 pips. Last Friday, the speech by Bank of England MPC member Huw Pill went unnoticed, which could not be said for the U.S. labor market data that fueled the pound's rally. However, as we can see on the chart, pressure on the pair returned, and buyers spent all the advantage they had at the end of last week. We look forward to data on the UK services PMI and the UK composite PMI. Only very good data will restore the chances for a pound recovery within the day. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on realizing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry point at 1.2782, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.2838, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2838, I plan to exit long positions and sell the pound in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. We can only count on a strong pound growth in the first half of the day after good data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I also plan to buy the pound today if the price at 1.2715 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2782 and 1.2838.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the level of 1.2715 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2635, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). You can sell the pound if buyers are not active after the release of PMI data in the development of the downtrend. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2782 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2715 and 1.2635.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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