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Analysis of trades and tips on EUR/USD
The price test of 1.1135 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose more than 30 pips. As mentioned in yesterday's forecast, the price test of 1.1171 and the immediate sell-off from this level allowed us to extract about 20 more pips of profit from the market. Yesterday's minutes from the FOMC's July meeting weakened the dollar's position, demonstrating to the market that the central bank intends to act more dovish in the near future. Today, we expect figures for the manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI for the Eurozone, as well as the European Central Bank's report from its monetary policy meeting. Weak data, likely from the manufacturing sector, will limit the euro's growth and could potentially lead to a significant drop in the pair during the first half of the day. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1165, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1210. At 1.1210, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Counting on the euro to rise today in the first half of the day will continue the trend, but this requires strong data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1140 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1165 and 1.1210.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1140, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.1103, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today if the pair fails to consolidate near the daily high and news about a sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1165 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1140 and 1.1103.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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