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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The price test of 1.1089 occurred when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct selling point for the euro as part of the downward correction. As a result, the pair fell by more than 30 pips, but we did not quite reach the target level of 1.1043. While the euro lost ground earlier in the day due to data on Spain's Consumer Price Index, Germany's CPI, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator, during the US session, strong data on the growth rate of the U.S. economy triggered a new wave of risk asset sell-offs, allowing sellers to achieve another test of the weekly low. In today's European session, we have several key data points to watch, starting with figures on changes in German retail sales, unemployment rates, changes in the number of employed in France's private sector, changes in France's GDP and CPI, and ending with the Eurozone CPI and unemployment rate. Weak data will push the euro even lower, so it's not advisable to rush into buying at the end of the week, even amidst such a significant correction. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.1090, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1132. At 1.1132, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It will be possible to count on the euro's growth today in the first half of the day after good data on the Eurozone. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2: I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1067 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1090 and 1.1132.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1067, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.1025, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today if there is a failed attempt at correction in the first half of the day. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1090 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1067 and 1.1025.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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