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The price test at 1.1050 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. However, despite the US data, the pair did not actively rise. No other market entry points were formed. Yesterday, weak data from the Sentix investor confidence indicator for the Eurozone, which disappointed economists and was worse than expected, could have triggered a new wave of decline in the pair. However, market positioning is likely more related to the expected interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and increased demand for the US dollar. Today, we await data on the German Consumer Price Index and industrial production in Italy. If the data matches economists' forecasts, pressure on the euro will likely continue. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1: Today, you can consider buying the euro when the price reaches around 1.1050 (green line on the chart) to rise to 1.1084. At 1.1084, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro today in the first half of the day can be expected if the eurozone data are favorable. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning its ascent.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive price tests at 1.1028 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1050 and 1.1084.
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1028 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0985, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return today if there is a failed attempt at correction in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive price tests at 1.1050 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1028 and 1.0985.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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