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Few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, and none are significant. Only the U.S. will publish two more or less significant reports—unemployment claims and the Producer Price Index. The first rarely shows serious deviations from forecasts and seldom provokes a market reaction. The second indicator, published yesterday, affects overall inflation and comprehensively answers the question, "What is happening with this indicator?"
The European Central Bank meeting stands out among the fundamental events on Thursday, although there's no real intrigue here. All market participants are confident that the ECB will lower rates for the second time by 0.25%. Therefore, the key moment will be ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech, which could guide the market on the central bank's future actions. However, even this event doesn't seem "extremely important," as the market still pays more attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While the market has been pricing in a Fed rate cut over the past two years, the dollar could now enter a prolonged period of strengthening, regardless of the ECB's plans and actions.
On Thursday, both currency pairs may continue to decline, but the euro's fate will somewhat depend on the results of the ECB meeting. We don't expect a clear-cut market reaction to this event. We'll likely see a spike in volatility, but once it subsides, the main trend will remain, and the EUR/USD pair will likely stay around the same level as before the meeting.
1) The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes for the signal to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened around any level due to false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can form multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4) Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and midway through the U.S. session. After this period, all trades must be closed manually.
5) In the hourly time frame, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6) If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7) After moving 15-20 pips in the intended direction, the Stop Loss should be set to break even.
Support and Resistance price levels: targets for opening long or short positions. You can place Take Profit levels around them.
Red lines: channels or trend lines that depict the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3): encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the movement of a currency pair. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the prevailing movement.
For beginners, it's important to remember that not every trade will yield profit. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management is key to success in trading over the long term.
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