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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the price at 148.05 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, ultimately missing out on the proper movement. Today's figures on a sharp decline in machine tool orders in Japan could have led to a slight weakening of the Japanese yen, though this is more of a coincidence than a real impact from the data. The market remains on the side of dollar buyers, and yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve representatives confirm this. Hints from policymakers about a more cautious reduction in interest rates are hurting the yen while supporting the dollar. I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 148.84 (green line on the chart) with a target of 149.46 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.46, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 30-35 pips downward from this level). The pair's growth can be expected as part of the continuation of the new trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price at 148.45 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 148.84 and 149.46.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 148.45 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 147.94 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips upward from this level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of unsuccessful activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price at 148.84 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 148.45 and 147.94.
What's on the Chart:
Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should carefully make entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop-loss orders, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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