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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0786 price level occurred when the MACD indicator started to move up from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. However, as you can see on the chart, the pair did not achieve significant growth by the end of the day. The lack of economic data was the main reason the euro could not show notable performance. But today could change that, with important data ahead, including the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. It is essential to understand that this could be more of a downside risk for the euro rather than a positive, as a decline in manufacturing activity is unlikely to be offset by service sector activity—especially in Germany, the flagship economy of the Eurozone. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches around 1.0799 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0827. At 1.0827, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro today in the first half of the day is only likely after strong PMI data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0785 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards the opposite levels of 1.0799 and 1.0827 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0785 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0756, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips upward from this level). Pressure on the pair can return anytime, as the downtrend remains intact. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0799 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0785 and 1.0756 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin Green Line: The entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick Green Line: The estimated price at which take-profit orders can be set, or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line: The entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick Red Line: The estimated price at which take-profit orders can be set, or profits can be manually secured, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
MACD Indicator: Considering overbought and oversold zones is crucial when entering the market.
Important Note for Beginners:
Novice traders in the Forex market must be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop-loss orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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