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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.2976 price level happened when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero mark, confirming an ideal entry point for selling the pound. Considering buyers near the daily high could not support the pair during the European session, strong U.S. data from the University of Michigan provided a basis for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by around 20 pips. Unfortunately, no important data is scheduled for the UK today, and retail sales data from the Confederation of British Industry is unlikely to impact the market significantly. Thus, the chances of an upward correction are slim. I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2 for today's intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if it reaches around 1.2965 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2990 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2990, I plan to exit the buy position and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip movement downward from this level. Today, any growth in the pound is likely to be limited to a minor correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2938 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could prompt an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposing levels of 1.2965 and 1.2990 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below the 1.2938 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 1.2917, where I plan to exit the sell position and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip upward move from this level. Selling the pound is advisable only if buyers show weak activity near the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2965 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward, with expected declines toward 1.2938 and 1.2917.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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