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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0877 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of this price came when the MACD was in the overbought zone, which, along with strong U.S. data, allowed scenario #2 for selling to play out. As a result, the pair dropped to the 1.0853 area. The U.S. labor market and inflation data strengthened the dollar, but demand for it quickly declined, maintaining market equilibrium. There is no Eurozone data in the first half of the day, so we are unlikely to see strong movements in the pair before important U.S. reports. I'll rely more on implementing scenario #2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.0885 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0914. I plan to exit the market at 1.0914 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is unlikely that significant euro growth will be expected today in the first half of the day. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0865 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.0885 and 1.0914 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0865 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0848, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25 pip movement in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will resume if there's a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0885 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and prompt a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0865 and 1.0848 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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