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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0875 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. However, I mentioned in the forecast that I would still enter the market as I expected high volatility following the U.S. data release. That's how it played out: the pair eventually rose by 30 pips, but we did not reach the target level. Weak U.S. labor market data triggered a decline in the dollar, but it was short-lived since the market had already factored in such a scenario due to various reasons, including strikes and storms. Today, the focus will shift to data on the manufacturing sector business activity index in the Eurozone and the Sentix investor confidence indicator for the Eurozone. Positive results could provide a reason to continue buying the euro and selling the dollar. The only potential hurdle may be the speeches by European Central Bank board members Joachim Nagel and Frank Elderson, who support further interest rate cuts. I will rely more on scenarios №1 and №2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario №1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.0911 level (green line on the chart) with the goal of a rise to 1.0966. I plan to exit the market at 1.0966 and sell the euro in anticipation of a reversal, aiming for a 30-35 pip movement from the entry point. Today, sustained growth in the first half of the day could extend the upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario №2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0880 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0911 and 1.0966 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario №1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0880 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0835 level, where I will exit the market and immediately buy back, aiming for a 20-25 pip movement in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in the event of an unsuccessful attempt to surpass the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario №2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0911 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0880 and 1.0835 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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