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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0892 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro at the end of the day and remained out of trade. The U.S. election limited the pair's upward potential, so trading in the coming days will likely stay within a horizontal channel. Given that there is no economic data from the Eurozone at all today, all focus will shift to the speech by the European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde. A dovish tone and a clearer policy regarding the prospect of rate cuts in the Eurozone could harm the euro's upward potential. I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the 1.0895 level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0930. At 1.0930, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Euro growth may continue in the first half of the day, continuing the upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0872 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.0895 and 1.0930 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0872 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0842, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if it fails to break above the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0895 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop toward the opposite levels of 1.0872 and 1.0842 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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