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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0778 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. I did not see other entry points throughout the day. The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates was widely expected and had little impact on the market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements were also extremely cautious, which traders interpreted as signaling a slower pace of rate cuts. Initially, the dollar reacted with growth, but then the momentum from buyers weakened.
Today, we will see figures on France's trade balance, industrial production, and Italy's retail sales volume. These metrics are likely to have a limited market impact, so it is better to focus on the political agenda of the new U.S. president and react to any new statements that could significantly affect demand for risk assets, including the euro. I will rely on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching 1.0799 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0844. At 1.0844, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. It is unlikely the euro will show significant growth during the first half of the day as part of the ongoing correction, now in its third day. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.0773, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.0799 and 1.0844 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after breaking through the 1.0773 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0733, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction. Pressure on the pair could return anytime, but selling is better at higher levels. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.0799, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.0773 and 1.0733 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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