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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 152.57 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I decided not to buy the dollar. Today, the summary of opinions and figures on changes in bank lending volume and the current account balance was released. The data came in slightly below economists' forecasts, leading to a decline in the yen and a strengthening of the US dollar within the forming upward trend. Given the current demand for the dollar, it's best to bet on the pair's further growth and buy during reasonably appealing corrections. For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at 153.64 (green line on the chart) with a target at 154.06 (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.06, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Growth can be expected, but it's better to buy on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.16 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 153.64 and 154.06 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 153.16 level (red line on the chart), likely leading to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 152.76, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a pullback of 20–25 pips. Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.64 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 153.16 and 152.76 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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