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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 156.25 earlier in the day coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming the ideal entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 50 points toward the target price of 155.73. The second half of the day features several important data releases. The day will begin with US retail sales and industrial production data, followed by speeches from FOMC members John Williams and Susan M. Collins. If the data exceeds economists' forecasts, demand for the dollar may return, potentially reversing most of today's morning drop in the pair. Weak data would provide a basis to continue selling the dollar. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches around 155.64 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 156.16 (thicker green line on the chart). At 156.16, I plan to exit the buy position and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 points from the entry level. A rise in the pair today would only be expected following strong data. Important: Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.19 twice, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise toward the levels of 155.64 and 156.16.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price reaches 155.19 (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The primary target for sellers is 154.81, where I will close the short position and immediately enter a long position, aiming for a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction. Sellers will dominate if the data supports the dollar's strength. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.64 twice when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline toward the levels of 155.19 and 154.81.
Beginner traders in the forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before important economic reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden currency fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without setting stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using proper money management and are trading with large volumes.
Remember that for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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