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The test of the price level at 1.2628 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark and was in the oversold zone, allowing the scenario for buying the pound to play out. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips. If you didn't act on this signal, you could have taken advantage of the test of the price level at 1.2656, which coincided with the start of the MACD indicator moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying the pound. Consequently, the pair rose to the target level of 1.2683, allowing for some profit-taking.
Today, the UK Consumer Price Index data is set to be released, and an increase will likely lead to a rise in the pound. In addition, attention will be paid to the speech by Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Markets and Banking. During his speech, he will likely discuss how the central bank plans to respond to changes in the economic situation and potential adjustments to monetary policy. In times of uncertainty, market participants need to understand how the BoE intends to address price pressures. Investors will watch closely for his comments on how inflation trends may influence future interest rate decisions. Any adjustments to forecasts could significantly impact the pound, with the market's reaction to these events becoming a key indicator of trader sentiment. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario #1:
Plan to buy the pound today if it reaches the entry point near 1.2698 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2734 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2734, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in anticipation of a 30-35 pip move in the opposite direction. Expect the pound to rise after strong inflation data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2676 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expected targets for this move are 1.2698 and 1.2734.
Scenario #1:
Plan to sell the pound today after the 1.2676 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2641, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction. Selling the pound is feasible but is better done at higher levels. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2698 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. Expected targets for this move are 1.2676 and 1.2641.
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