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The GBP/USD currency pair opened Monday with a slight upward gap to hint at its future direction. However, to be honest, this movement was more amusing than encouraging for sterling enthusiasts. The British pound has been falling for two months. It has crossed the moving average line a few times, only to fail to sustain growth. Yesterday, the price opened with a gap (which sounds impressive), but we didn't even manage to reach the moving average, which is very close to the price.
Thus, while the pound could start a correction at any moment, for the pair to stage a meaningful rally, it would at least need to break above the moving average. Even then, growth is not guaranteed, especially under current conditions. The pound remains under significant market pressure for reasons we've outlined countless times. Over time, nothing has changed. Some might think we are avoiding the actual reasons behind the pound's decline, but the reality is that it has been falling for two months due to the same factors we've discussed since the start of 2024.
In the 4-hour timeframe, a downward trend is evident, and a correction seems overdue. However, the weekly timeframe reveals a more global picture. What do we see there? The global trend remains bearish. The upward movement over the past two years was merely a correction. The price has dropped to the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator. If the correction is complete, a new bearish impulse should begin. This new impulse does not necessarily need to surpass the previous one. Consequently, the pound could fall as far as parity.
Of course, speculating about a further 2,600-pip drop might be overconfident at this stage, but a target of 1.1800 seems entirely achievable. We've highlighted this target since the beginning of the year. The fundamental background for the British currency remains unchanged, and the Bank of England's slow approach provides no support for the pound. The market understands that the BoE will eventually lower the key rate to a neutral level, whether quickly or slowly. There's no counterbalance because the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing factor has already been priced in. Moreover, with potentially inflationary policies, Donald Trump's return to power adds to the mix. Meanwhile, the market no longer firmly believes in a Fed rate cut in December, though it anticipated several 0.5% cuts in September. Therefore, we maintain that the pound has only one path forward: downward.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 89 pips, which is considered "moderate." On Tuesday, November 26, we expect the pair to trade within a range of 1.2470 to 1.2648. The higher linear regression channel points downward, signaling a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has formed numerous bullish divergences and has entered oversold territory several times, yet no significant corrections have materialized.
The GBP/USD pair maintains its bearish trend. Long positions are still not recommended, as we believe the market has already priced in all factors supporting the pound multiple times. For those trading solely on technical signals, longs may be considered with targets at 1.2817 and 1.2878 if the price moves above the moving average. However, short positions are much more relevant now, with targets at 1.2451 and 1.2390 as long as the price remains below the moving average.
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
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