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The EUR/USD currency pair once again attempted to consolidate above the moving average on Tuesday, but we cannot say it succeeded. Let us remind you that crossing the moving average line indicates only a possible trend change, not a confirmed one. It is also important to note that any indicators are merely mathematical formulas incapable of predicting future movements. Similarly, technical patterns are just graphical representations meant to explain what is happening in the market. Each indicator must be carefully filtered and used in the correct context, just like patterns.
What do the indicators show? Firstly, the CCI indicator entered the oversold zone about five times in the past two months. Not once did the euro initiate a correction. This is because entering the extreme zone is merely a warning. The same applies to "bullish divergences"—these are just warnings. During a downtrend, they typically signal a potential correction at best but not a trend reversal.
Then, when should you rely on indicators and patterns? Only when they align with the fundamental backdrop or when the market is relatively calm. Without a strong trend, divergences and extreme zone signals are more reliable. However, when the price is plummeting (or rising) relentlessly, it is clear that the market has compelling reasons for one-sided trading. Considering counter-trend signals in such conditions is tantamount to financial suicide. Therefore, all current buy signals can be safely ignored.
We have repeatedly stated that the euro should continue to decline in the medium term for specific reasons. While we did not perfectly predict the timing of this movement, it has now clearly begun. This is due to a massive market imbalance. Participants were solely pricing in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing while ignoring all other factors. We are witnessing the dollar's relentless growth as the market corrects this imbalance and brings the exchange rate to a fair value. Considering the Fed's more hawkish stance compared to what the market has already priced in, the dollar could strengthen to parity with the euro.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has yet to consolidate above the moving average. Under such circumstances, how can we talk about buying? Short positions remain the only viable option until the euro demonstrates a clear reversal.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days, as of November 27, is 107 pips, characterized as "high." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0359 and 1.0573 on Wednesday. The higher linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating that the global downtrend remains intact. The CCI indicator frequently enters the oversold zone and shows "bullish divergences," but these only lead to minor pullbacks. The downward trend remains dominant.
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. In recent months, we have consistently stated that we anticipate only declines in the euro in the medium term and fully support the downtrend direction. The market is highly likely to have already priced in all or most of the anticipated future Federal Reserve rate cuts. If so, the dollar still has no significant reasons for a medium-term decline, as it had few.
If the price remains below the moving average, short positions can still be considered, with targets at 1.0376 and 1.0254. For those trading purely on technical indicators, long positions can be considered if the price is above the moving average, with targets at 1.0620 and 1.0742. However, we would not recommend long positions at this time.
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
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