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The wave structure is straightforward. The last completed upward wave barely surpassed the previous wave's peak, while the most recent downward wave easily broke the previous low. This indicates that the "bullish" trend has concluded, as expected, with minimal strength. The next move is likely a decline in the euro as part of a new trend.
The absence of significant events on Thursday explains the lack of activity from both bulls and bears. The market has shifted into holiday mode ahead of Christmas and New Year's, which means movements may remain weak or entirely absent until the year's end. At some point, bulls or bears might attempt to drive the pair in their favor, taking advantage of the opposing side's inactivity. However, such fluctuations are unpredictable. For now, traders might still focus on the 1.0320 level, but patience will be required.
The pair has rebounded twice from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0603 and from the 1.0436 level. The downward movement could continue toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0225. A consolidation above 1.0436 might lead to further growth toward the upper boundary of the descending trend channel. Currently, no emerging divergences are noted in any indicators. The trend channel provides no reason to expect strong growth in the euro.
During the last reporting week, speculators reduced 4,704 long positions and 14,382 short positions.Sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders remains bearish and is intensifying, suggesting further declines in the pair. Total long positions stand at 152,000, while short positions amount to 218,000.
For fourteen consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing their euro positions. This reinforces the bearish trend. Occasionally, bulls dominate for brief periods, but these are exceptions. The primary driver for the dollar's decline—expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy easing—has been fully priced in. Unless new factors emerge, the dollar's growth remains the more likely scenario. Technical analysis also supports the continuation of a long-term bearish trend. Thus, I expect the EUR/USD pair to experience a prolonged decline.
December 27 features only one minor event on the economic calendar. Its impact on market sentiment is expected to be negligible.
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