09.06.201404:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast and weekly analysis of EUR/USD for June 09-13, 2014

Long-term review

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The pair pushed lower towards the 40 month EMA and 38.2 fib level from the top end of the channel. On the downside, the pair has a support zone between 1.35-1.3477. During the previous week, we recommended to buy with sl 1.3477. After the ECB decision, the pair moved to 1.3470 levels, but was unable to hold its gains. We expect the pair to be in another round of selling only below 1.3477 for target 1.3374 (50 monthly SMA). The short-term reversal would take place only above 1.3732. The longer trend reversal would take place above 1.40 for an inital target 1.4385 levels.

Sell only below 1.3460 for 1.3374 and 1.32. Bulls last hope with sl 1.3477

In the weekly chart, the pair chopped the 50 week SMA and slashed to a 4 month low. But it well managed to close above the 50 week SMA. If we go through the micro view in the weekly chart, we can observe the pair has been taking support at 40 weeks EMA on a closing basis. In Asia's session the pair opened above the 40 weeks EMA. In case the initial support at 1.3622 breaks below, it is seen to fall up to 1.3572, 1.35 and 1.3477 levels.

Thw weekly support level exists at 1.35, a reversal trade takes place below 1.3460 for 1.3416, 1.34 and 1.3374 levels. Bull's strength is above 1.367 for 1.3735 and 1.3775 levels.

The pair has been trying to breach the 200 days SMA, but finally succeeded and closed above it last Thurday and Friday as well. But today in Asia's session it opened below it. The pair was unable to cross the 200 day SMA 1.3650. On the downside, it has support at 1.3620 levels. Traders can sell below 1.3618 for 1.3585, 1.3560, 1.3550, 1.3520, 1.35 and 1.3477. Bulls can regain their strength only above 1.3650 if the pair touches 1.3670, 1.3683 and 1.37 levels.

Intraday recommendations: 1.3644 cmp

Sell below 1.3618

Buy above 1.3650

Positional sell below 1.3460

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