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Technical outlook:
EUR/USD 4H chart has been presented here with the most probable wave count, to get the medium term outlook for the pair. Looking at the developments here, the pair seems to be either forming a leading diagonal pattern from the top at 1.2092 levels or a double zigzag (not labelled here as an alternative). In either case, we expected a new low below 1.1573 levels before turning higher again. At least EUR/USD produced a new low yesterday before pulling back higher again. Please note that a probability still remains for yet another low towards 1.1510 levels at least before the turn. But at the same time, looking into divergences across the MACD and RSI, it is recommended to change the trading strategy to going long on dips.
Trading plan:
Please remain long partial now at 1.1585 levels and remaining a 1.1500/20 levels, risk remains below the 1.1400 level, targeting at least 1.1900 levels.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index 4H chart setup has been displayed here to have a medium term outlook and trade setup. The index looks to be completing either a 5-wave impulse rally through 95.30/50 levels as labelled here, or it is terminating into wave 4 of a larger degree (discussed with respect to the daily chart yesterday). In either cases, we expect a bearish reversal from around the 95.30/50 levels as depicted here (red fibonacci ratio). We are changing our medium term trading strategy to turn short on rallies till the 92.50/93.00 levels at least. Please note that if prices break below 94.40 levels from here itself, it is a strong indication of a meaningful top to be in place around the 95.00/10 levels. Watch out for strong resistance around the 95.30/50 levels, if prices manage to reach there.
Trading plan:
Remain short from here at 94.85/90 and add further at 95.30/50, risk remains a 96.00 plus targeting 92.50 at least.
Fundamental outlook:
There are no major events lined up for the day.
Good luck!
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