15.11.201809:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 15, 2018

Long-term review

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AUD/USD has been quite impressive with the recent bullish gains after the bounce off the 0.7150-0.7200 support area with a daily close. Despite recent positive economic reports from the US, AUD gained more momentum in the market due to upbeat employment data today.

Today AUD Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 32.8k from the previous figure of 7.8k which was expected to be at 19.9k and Unemployment Report was unchanged at 5.0% which was expected to increase to 5.1%. Moreover, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle spoke today about the housing lending issue. Besides, he addressed the repayment problems of the borrowers, so he suggested certain policies to reduce future shocks due to lending and monetary policy issues.

On the other hand, recently US CPI report was published with an increase to 0.3% as expected from the previous value of 0.1% and Core CPI also increased to 0.2% as expected from the previous value of 0.1%. The readings were in line with expectations, however USD failed to gain momentum which indicates temporary weakness of the US currency. The market-moving event today is FED Chair Powell's speech which is expected to signal another rate hike this year. Thus, USD could find support from Powell's remarks before the weekend.

Meanwhile, AUD is quite strong fundamentally and technically which might lead to certain gains in the pair, but there are still chances of USD to regain momentum as Powell's speech may contain the hawkish remarks which will encourage dollar bulls. If the US provides strong statistics in the coming days, further indecision and correction may persist in the market for longer. Otherwise, AUD may set a strong impulsive bullish trend in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing higher towards 0.7300 from where it has a probability to push lower towards 0.7150-0.7200 area. Though the recent price structure is in a range, further bullish pressure will persist with a target towards 0.7450-0.7500 resistance area in the future as the price breaks above 0.7300 with a daily close. As the price remains above 0.7150-0.7200 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.7150, 0.7200

RESISTANCE: 0.7300, 0.7450, 0.7500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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