07.05.201911:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. May 7th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Does the dollar react negatively to the escalation of the trade conflict with China?

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 57.4001

The first trading day of the week ended with a slight strengthening of the European currency. On Monday, we expected that the European markets would rush to play Friday's American news, but this did not happen. From our point of view, this point is indicative. It turns out that a fairly strong macroeconomic statistics from the States was completely ignored. Why? Maybe because there are very few sellers of the pair now, considering the still rather low EUR/USD exchange rate values? One way or another, the conclusion now arises that market participants are not ready to actively sell the pair on the basis of macroeconomic reports alone. We need a stronger fundamental background, which does not exist, given the refusal of the Fed to further raise rates. In recent days, the theme of the trade war between the States and China has intensified. It would seem that the parties managed to come to a mutually beneficial agreement, but in practice, Donald Trump went on the attack on Beijing again. Through his Twitter, the US President said that in the near future, duties on various categories of goods will be raised from 0% and 10% to 25%. What was the basis for such a step, it is difficult to say now. In any case, the ball is again on the side of China, and now we are waiting for a response from Beijing. At the moment, it can be stated that the trade war between the countries has flared up again.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1,1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has overcome the moving, but now it seems that traders do not know which way to trade. Formally, long positions with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1292 are relevant now, but it is difficult to say how long the weak upward movement will be maintained.

It is recommended to open sell orders not earlier than reversing the pair below the moving average line with the first target at 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.