16.05.201909:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 16. The fall of the pound – unconditionally, the euro can roll back up

EUR/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a fall to the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177) and rebounded with a reversal in favor of the European currency after failing to close under this level. Yesterday's news from the US contributed to the rebound of quotations from the Fibo level of 100.0%. Retail sales in April fell by 0.2%, and industrial production by 0.5%. Naturally, such news prevented traders from continuing to sell the pair. Thus, now we can count on some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). From this Fibo level, a rebound is also expected, which will allow quotes to perform a reversal in favor of the US dollar and resume the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0%. Traders can determine the downward reversal of the pair by turning the MACD down or by disconnecting from the Fibo level. I do not expect to see the pair much higher than 76.4% and much lower than 100.0% in the near future, as several rebounds from these levels show the weakness of traders' intentions outside this price range.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

In the current conditions, the EUR/USD pair can easily move in the side corridor between the levels of 76.4% and 100.0%. Thus, traders can buy a pair with a target at 1.1241, near which we can expect a rebound. If this hypothesis is fulfilled, it is recommended to sell the pair with a target of 1.1177 and a stop loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4%. The news calendar does not contain important data today, but one should not forget about the "Trump factor", which at any time can come up with discouraging information.

GBP/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the pair GBP/USD continues to fall and completed the consolidation below the retracement level of 50.0% (1.2867). Today, May 16, a bullish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator, the formation of which will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in quotations. The consolidation of the pair above the level of Fibo 50.0% similar work in favor of the early growth of the pair in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). Thus, we consider purchases with a rebound from the level of 38.2% (1.2765), or above the level of 50.0%.

GBP/USD – 1H.

As seen on the hourly chart, the pair GBP/USD clarifies the technical situation well. The closure of the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2865) will be the first call to the desire of the pound to start the growth with the target of 76.4% (1.2939). Under the retracement level of 100.0%, thus, we are considering new sales of the pair from the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2782). Today, the emerging divergence is not observed in any indicator. No news is expected today, but there may be messages from Donald Trump or Theresa May, who have a habit of disturbing the Forex Market. The themes "China-US Trade War" and "Brexit" continue to be significant for Forex traders.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD below the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2865) retains the chances of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 127.2% (1.2782). Therefore, it is recommended to sell the pair. The first signal to buy the pair is to close on the hourly chart above the level of 100.0%. The second – closing at 4-hour above the level of 50.0%. In terms of price, they almost coincide, but in time – different. Holding positions at 4-hour above this level will allow considering purchases with a target of 1.2939.