04.07.201910:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro to weaken in case Lagarde is elected ECB President

The American and European financial markets positively reacted to the candidacy of Christine for the post of the European Central Bank President. Currently, she is the head of the International Monetary Fund.

This positive attitude can be explained by the fact that Lagarde is expected to take active measures aimed at boosting economic growth in the region. The measures may include the resumption of the quantitative easing program or introduction of a similar program. Naturally, if her candidacy is approved, it will provide support to the European stock market and consequently affect the exchange rate of the single European currency.

On Wednesday, the ADP released the report on the number of newly created jobs in the United States in June. This report is traditionally a prelude to the official data that will be presented this Friday. The ADP numbers were not impressive. Though the nonfarm payrolls turned out to be higher than May's values, which had been slightly revised upwards to 41,000, they were still noticeably lower than expected. The forecast suggested that the American economy created 140,000 jobs in June but the acual reading was only 102,000.

Though this data is not official, it very often reflects the figures issued by the US Department of Labor.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released the non-manufacturing PMI reading. It demonstrated the overall negative dynamics. The index fell to 55.1 points in June versus the previous reading of 56.9 points with a forecast of a decrease to 56.1 points.

If the macroeconomic statistics from the United States continues to be weak, the Federal Reserve may change its wait-and-see approach and take decisive actions aimed at maintaining the growth trend of the national economy. In addition, another factor that could prompt the US financial watchdog to ease its monetary policy is Donald Trump's increasing pressure. His desire to tame the Federal Reserve became deeper ahead of the new presidential race. Reportedly, the President plans to introduce two new members to the Fed, pursuing his goals. Such a move may actually outweigh the overall neutral position of the bank in the direction of lowering the interest rates.

Today's market dynamics is sluggish as the American investors are off their desks, celebrating Independence Day.

Daily Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair was consolidating above 1.1275 on the weekend wave in the US and general low investor activity due to this. Probably, the pair will be trading in the range of 1.1275-1.1315, but if the lower boundary of the range is broken, the pair may fall to 1.1250.

The NZD/USD pair reached a local maximum of 0.6720 and it is likely to retrace to 0.6660. It would be reasonable to sell the pair after it breaks the level of 0.6690.