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Of course, Europe was already expecting a slowdown in inflation but not so strong. It was predicted that it should slow down from 1.3% to 1.1%, but in fact, it turned out that it decreased to 1.0%. This brings us back to the situation more than two years ago since the last time inflation was at such a low level was just in November 2016. But do not forget that then she grew, and surely. Nevertheless, until inflation rose to 2.0%, the European Central Bank did not even think about the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing program. Already talking about raising the refinancing rate ended at the stage of the thought process in this direction. Here, inflation goes down again and even descends to such low values. So, it becomes clear that the word of the European Central Bank to consider raising the refinancing rate in the middle of next year will remain promising. However, soon without Super Mario himself, it is as if the department of Mario Draghi would not have announced the resumption of the quantitative easing program in full. Moreover, in this light, it is not surprising that portraits of the dead presidents continue to grow in value.
Chart of inflation in Europe:
There are no serious macroeconomic data today, therefore, investors are left face to face with their fears about further actions of the European Central Bank amid a serious decline in inflation. It is also funny that all kinds of mass media of agitation and misinformation are actively discussing the topic of Jerome Powell's Friday speech, completely forgetting that the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations will be published tomorrow. Moreover, it is unlikely that the essence of the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve System within the walls of Jackson-Hole will be fundamentally different from the content of the text of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations. If we recall that the decision to lower the refinancing rate was not unanimous, it is almost certain that in the text of the protocol we will see almost direct indications that more steps should be expected from the Federal Reserve System to mitigate monetary policy by the end of the current year. So in light of growing concerns about the possible actions of the European Central Bank, under the pressure of declining inflation, the dollar will continue to strengthen.
After a short pullback, the Euro/Dollar currency pair found a resistance level in the region of 1.1100. After which, a gradual recovery process began. It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within the local Friday minimum of 1.1066 and the current level of 1.1100 in analyzing clear price fixations.
The Pound/Dollar currency pair reached the level of 1.2150, where it formed a stagnation in forming a corrective movement. As a matter of fact, there is an attempt for a recovery move. It is likely to assume a temporary descent to the area of 1.2080, after which it is worth analyzing the behavior of the quote and the fixation point since stagnation is possible.
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