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Bitcoin – 4H.
On September 11, Bitcoin rebounded from the correction level of 76.4% ($9788) and a small increase. However, the tendency of bitcoin to fall remains, as the quotes remain within the tapering triangle formed by the two trend lines. Since the "cue ball" quotes rebound from the upper line, I expect the fall to the bottom line, which is located near the price value of $9350. This level is the maximum potential fall in the current conditions. A further drop in BTC quotes will be possible if traders manage to close below the trend line. In this case, bitcoin may decline in the medium term to the target levels of $4000 - $5000 per coin indicated by John Bollinger. I recommend buying cryptocurrency after the price goes beyond the triangle through the upper trend line, that is, under current conditions, not lower than the levels of $10400 - $10500. Or after the rebound from the bottom trend line.
A new interesting forecast came from one of the famous crypto experts, based on the study of the cyclical complexity of cryptocurrency mining. Based on the expert's considerations, only the growth and fall of the capacities required for mining are cyclical. The crypto expert correlated the complexity of block mining (that is, the volume of production capacity and costs) with the value of bitcoin. Based on calculations, the new maximum value of bitcoin is $31000. However, the analysis does not say when BTC can reach these figures.
Meanwhile, an increasing number of analysts note a decrease in the maximum value of bitcoin on the 4-24 hourly charts. This phenomenon is visible to the naked eye. It is this factor that can speak in favor of a further decline in the quotes of the "cue ball", and confirmation of this scenario will be the closure under the lower line of the triangle, which we have already written above.
Another interesting forecast came from a well-known analyst and one of the founders of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee. According to Lee, the Fed's rate cut may lead to an increase in the value of bitcoin, and by the end of the year, the cryptocurrency will grow to $20000 per coin. According to Lee, bitcoin is used by investors to hedge risks, and the rate cut by the central bank causes an increase in volatility, which applies both to the transfer of funds to high-risk assets and hedging instruments. From my point of view, this is a very controversial statement, and we have heard a lot of such forecasts from "experts". However, while bitcoin is getting cheaper, and its most important peaks (there are two of them and they are visible on the monthly or weekly chart) says the opposite: Bitcoin is preparing to fall to $4000 per coin, since the second upward impulse was much weaker than the first, when bitcoin reached almost $20000.
Overall results:
Bitcoin continues to become cheaper, though at a low pace. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $9300 - $9400. The rebound of BTC from the trend line will allow traders to count on the growth of the "cue ball" quote to $10000 - $10500. But more likely, from my point of view, there is still an option with a fall much lower than $9350.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.
Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed a rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4%. However, I recommend that you still consider sales with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9350 (the bottom line of the triangle).
I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a fall in the price.
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